The property market, be it in the UK as a whole or here closer to home in Dunfermline and West Fife, tends to thrive when the world and the economy are stable and confidence is high. When uncertainty looms — whether through political events, global conflicts, or changes in international trade policy — people often hold off on major financial decisions. So given current world events and a second term for Trump one might understandably think the property market is heading into choppy if not stormy waters. As logical as such a conclusion may be, over the last decade the housing market in Scotland has shown a growing resilience to these types of shocks and, perhaps surprisingly, the outlook isn’t as bleak as you might think.
From Brexit and the pandemic to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, from changes in political leadership to new Governments, the Scottish market has continued to perform steadily. In Dunfermline and across the region property values have remained on a generally upward trend. Supported by strong local demand, improved transport links to Edinburgh and beyond, and what can only be described as good old fashioned Scottish bloody mindedness and a refusal to buckle under a welter of challenges, our property market has stayed strong.
Why West Fife Has Remained Resilient
Before considering the risks Donald J Trump may pose, let’s first look at several key factors which have thus far helped insulate the West Fife housing market:
- Many homeowners in the region own their homes outright, meaning they are less affected by changes in mortgage rates or financial markets. According to data from the Registers of Scotland almost 50% of homeowners across Scotland now own their properties outright, insulating the market — including in Fife — from mortgage-rate volatility.
- Lenders have introduced much stricter borrowing criteria compared to 15–20 years ago, limiting the risks of overstretched borrowing.
- Mortgage products are now generally lower risk — with 100% and interest-only loans very much a rarity.
- House price growth in West Fife has been more modest than in many other regions of the UK and Scotland and as a result more sustainable, without the volatile boom-bust cycles seen in parts of southern England.
Trump’s Economic Influence – Minimal but Not Irrelevant
So, getting back to the question posed in our title, what impact has Donald Trump had, and perhaps more importantly, might he have over the next three and a half years of his Presidency?
As tempting as it is, given the unique volatility and maverick behaviour of the man in question, to be flippant and say, “Your guess is as good as mine!” I actually believe one can now begin to see the wood amongst the trees. Perhaps the most alarming and headline grabbing of President Trump’s presidency thus far has been his protectionist policies, including sweeping tariffs on imports to the U.S. Thankfully the impact on Scotland has been reasonably limited. Scotland’s economic links with the U.S. are meaningful but heavily focused on services, whisky exports, and energy — sectors somewhat buffered from the worst effects of tariffs and have had little direct effect on local property prices in West Fife.
His broader stance on NATO spending and European defence contributions may however be more relevant to the local economy, and by extension, the housing market. Trump has repeatedly pressured European NATO members to increase their defence budgets, insisting they contribute a fairer share to collective security. Given the unpredictability of the man, his widely condemned treatment of President Zelensky when visiting the Whitehouse and coupled to his confusing ambivalence towards Russia’s President Putin, he has it seems managed to persuade European leaders that they do indeed need to increase defence spending dramatically even if only because Trump often looks more like a fair-weather friend than a dependable ally.
The massive growth in the UK defence budget announced this month will I believe lead to growth in the UK economy as a whole with Rosyth a potential if not indeed a probable beneficiary of greater naval defence spending. The dockyard plays a central role in the UK’s naval defence capabilities and has historically benefited from MOD contracts tied to strategic defence investment. This of course, in turn supports local employment and economic confidence which, as stated earlier is the very cornerstone of the property market.
A Stable Base for Property Growth
Economic resilience in West Fife is of course underpinned by more than just defence. Edinburgh continues to grow as a centre for financial services and our proximity to the capital serves us well. Due to excellent road and rail links Dunfermline continues to evolve as the pre-eminent commuter hub for Edinburgh. Trump’s tariffs affect only goods and not services so Edinburgh will escape the worst of the effects of the new protectionist policy and by extension we here in Dunfermline.
Trump’s policies, especially the shifting sands of the aforementioned tariffs, have caused volatility in stock markets around the world. Some commentators predict that without a climb down by President Trump (TACO!) a US and world recession might be on the cards. To counter this and encourage investment and consumer spending to support the economy (and despite inflation being above the Government’s target of 2%), the Bank of England will very likely lower its base rate to 4.25% this month or next, with projections suggesting a further drop to 3.75% or even 3% by 2028. This would mean that mortgages are expected to become more affordable which, it goes without saying, is good news for both buyers and investors in West Fife.
In Summary
Don’t panic! The first six months of Donald Trump’s second term presidency has not triggered any direct disruption to the West Fife housing market. His pressure on Europe to increase defence spending may very well result in increased investment in Rosyth dockyard, helping to secure and expand skilled employment in the region. Trump’s flip-flopping on his tariffs policy has put central banks, including the Bank of England, on high alert and ready to step in with further cuts to base rates to prop up and boost our economy should the need arise. That as stated would/will mean lower mortgage rates and a shot in the arm for the property market.
Combined with strong fundamentals – including affordable housing, transport connectivity, and local economic development – Dunfermline and West Fife are well-positioned for continued growth. With borrowing expected to become easier and demand remaining high, the local property market looks likely to remain robust regardless of international political noise.