So now we know the date. We go to the polls on the 4th July to decide whether we have a further five years of Conservative rule or whether the nation feels it’s time for change and a first Labour Government in fourteen years. But what do elections mean for the property market?
The answer is not a great deal although this time around we are detecting a modicum of hesitation from both buyers and sellers . We expect it to be short lived. In previous years we have seen a slight pause in activity but more often than not that has been when the decision has been in the balance and the direction of future travel unclear. The 2014 Independence Referendum was one such example. If the polls and pollsters are to be believed it looks odds on that Labour will win this election and that appears to have been accepted and factored in by both the public and the money markets. Recent research by Rightmove showed that 95% of people planning to move home say the upcoming election will not affect their plans.
Steady as she goes!
Our resident local property market expert, Property Director Keiran Newman, says: “With the date now set for a summer general election, we anticipate that housing market activity will remain pretty steady in the lead-up to the big day based on previous patterns. This is further supported by the current attitude among home-movers we’re speaking to, with the majority indicating that the election will not affect their plans.
“Over the past four years, home-movers have faced numerous challenges, including a global pandemic, a disastrous Liz Truss mini budget, rising mortgage costs, rising inflation, a cost of living crisis a shortage of housing supply – the list goes on. Finally, we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel with inflation dropping rapidly back towards the 2% target, interest rate cuts imminent and so for many the latter half of 2024 is finally the time to make their move.”
What happened around past elections?
Looking back at what happened in the housing market in previous general elections, in 2015 and 2019 we can see that the market remained steady, both before and during the election period. Only the 2014 Independence Referendum caused a major slow down which given the implications of a Yes victory had that occurred (new currency etc) was not surprising.
Keiran adds: “Previous elections would indicate we may be set for a strong summer once the election is over, especially if interest rates start to fall as we expect.”
